Banks' Q3 Treasury Income Flat as Yields Clash with RBI Liquidity

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AuthorAnanya Iyer|Published at:
Banks' Q3 Treasury Income Flat as Yields Clash with RBI Liquidity
Overview

Indian banks anticipate flat treasury income for the third quarter. Rising government bond yields are pressuring asset valuations, particularly in available-for-sale portfolios. However, the Reserve Bank of India's substantial Open Market Operation purchases are injecting liquidity, helping to offset losses and create limited trading gains. Coupon payments offer additional support, but performance is expected to vary across lenders.

Yield Pressure on Valuations

Banks' treasury income is poised for a flat performance in the third quarter, as a modest rise in government bond yields may counteract gains from the Reserve Bank of India’s Open Market Operation (OMO) purchases. Benchmark bond yields hardened by approximately 10-12 basis points during the period, creating mark-to-market stress, especially on banks' available-for-sale (AFS) portfolios. This valuation pressure limits the scope for significant trading profits from rising yields alone.

RBI's OMO Lifeline

The Reserve Bank of India's extensive OMO purchase programme, which infused about ₹1.5 lakh crore of durable liquidity into the system, played a crucial role. These operations helped to cap potential losses stemming from yield hardening and presented selective trading opportunities. Public sector banks, often active participants in OMOs, were particularly able to mitigate the impact of rising yields by selling securities to the central bank.

Coupon Inflows and Portfolio Shifts

Beyond OMOs, coupon inflows from government securities and state development loans provided a consistent support to treasury income. Additionally, some banks managed to book profits by strategically shifting securities from their held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolios into OMOs. This move helped offset the valuation challenges faced in their AFS books, contributing to overall treasury performance.

Uneven Performance Expected

Treasury performance is forecast to be uneven across different lenders. Banks with larger AFS books are likely to grapple with valuation challenges, while those with more agile portfolio management strategies are better positioned to capitalize on OMO-related gains. The unevenness reflects differing risk appetites and portfolio compositions among financial institutions.

Analyst Outlook

An analyst report from Systematix Institutional Equities indicated varied expectations for 'other income' across banks. Axis Bank's other income is projected to grow by 12.6% year-on-year, Bank of India by 21%, and Bank of Maharashtra by 8.7%. HDFC Bank is expected to see a 7.4% increase. Conversely, IndusInd Bank's other income is anticipated to drop by 28.6%, and Bank of Baroda by 1.1%. Bank of India's treasury income is expected to be lower sequentially due to hardening average yields.

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