Whalesbook
Ports and Logistics Sector Outlook
Elara Capital analysts anticipate a strong performance for Indian port operators in the December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26), projecting them to outperform surface transporters. Key drivers include robust container cargo volumes, a rebound in iron ore shipments, and expanded operations at international ports.
Surface Transporters and Rail EXIM
Surface logistics demand is expected to remain stable, fueled by the business-to-consumer segment, enhanced by seasonal festive demand and recent GST rate reductions. Rail-based EXIM volumes are also set for improvement, reflecting healthy overall export-import activity.
Top Picks and Price Targets
The research firm has issued Buy ratings for its favored companies: Adani Ports & SEZ with a target price of ₹1,700, JSW Infrastructure at ₹362, and Delhivery at ₹593. These recommendations highlight confidence in sector growth.
Adani Ports & SEZ Performance Forecast
Elara Capital forecasts Adani Ports & SEZ (APSEZ) to achieve 17% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3FY26. This is underpinned by an estimated 10% rise in cargo volumes to approximately 123 million tonnes. Expansion at international ports in Sri Lanka and Tanzania, alongside growth in the marine segment and logistics services, are key contributors. Consolidated revenue is projected around ₹92 billion, with EBITDA margins holding steady near 60.3%.
JSW Infrastructure Growth Drivers
JSW Infrastructure is expected to see roughly 7% volume growth. This rise stems from easing maintenance disruptions impacting captive volumes and a significant recovery in iron ore handling at Paradip. Despite potential near-term margin pressure from higher third-party terminal volumes, tariff normalization and logistics segment profitability are anticipated to offer support. The company's capital expenditure plans are reportedly on schedule.
Delhivery's E-commerce Momentum
Delhivery is poised for strong volume-led expansion, with express parcel volumes projected to surge 30% and part truckload volumes up 19% in Q3FY26. This growth is attributed to sustained e-commerce demand and the benefits of GST rate cuts. Integration costs related to Ecom Express are anticipated to decrease, mitigating one-off pressures. However, rising corporate expenses may temper operating leverage gains.
Divergent Trends in Logistics
The broader logistics sector will exhibit varied performance in Q3FY26. VRL Logistics faces a potential 6% volume decline due to muted demand but is expected to maintain healthy margins around 18%. Blue Dart Express anticipates steady volumes, benefiting from network efficiencies. Mahindra Logistics is projected to show improvements in B2B express volumes and reduced losses. Container Corporation of India, however, may see flat realisations amid competition and domestic bottlenecks.